Introduction: Psychoactive drug use is a growing public health and social problem among university students worldwide. Objective: To construct the dimensions of the criterion variable by grouping the drugs under study according to their frequency of use, and to evaluate, through predictive models, some risk and protective factors that contribute to explaining the frequent use or abstinence from toxic drugs.
Method: The study employed a quantitative paradigm and a cross-sectional, explanatory, causal, multivariate design. The sampling method was simple random probability sampling, and the sample consisted of 236 students. The data collection instrument demonstrated qualitative validity and reliability.
Data Analysis: First, factor analysis with Varimax rotation was used to group and construct the dimensions of the criterion or dependent variable. Second, multiple linear regression analysis was used to compare three alternative multifactorial models that could explain and predict the variance of the criterion variable. Third, the significance of the multiple regression model was verified using Snedecor's F-statistic. Fourth, the product of the beta and correlation coefficients of the final model was used to determine the proportion of variance of each predictor or independent variable in the response variable, Factor 2: consumption of alcohol, tobacco, marijuana, cocaine, and crack cocaine.
Results: The overall multifactorial regression model is statistically significant. This implies rejecting the null hypothesis that all regression coefficients in the model are zero in the population. However, the overall coefficient of determination is not very high; only about 21% of the variance in Factor 2 is explained by the 12 predictor variables included in the final model. The coefficients of determination confirmed that the main risk factors predicting more frequent drug use among university students are: lower average parental education level, male sex, having sex under the influence of alcohol, lower risk perception, and easier access to illegal drugs on the market. Conversely, the most important protective factors explaining lower rates of frequent drug use are: the higher average level of education of parents, less student exposure to alcohol (which leads to avoiding sexual activity and polydrug use due to its effects), a greater perception of health risks associated with frequent marijuana and cocaine use, and greater difficulty in accessing addictive substances on the market. The more difficult it is to access drugs, the lower the likelihood of frequent use among university students.
Conclusion: It is essential to consider the predictive factors of risk and protection when designing a prevention program for the use of psychoactive drugs in the universito population.